VOO vs 200 DMAHow far the S&P 500 (via VOO) is above or below its 200-day average price. Above = healthy uptrend; below = downtrend. The market's single best trend gauge.
1VOO vs 200 DMAi
+12.4%
Above 200 DMA
✓ GREEN
Trend is your friend.
VIX (Fear Gauge)Wall Street's 'fear gauge' — how big a move traders expect in stocks over the next 30 days. Under 20 = calm; over 30 = real fear and bigger swings.
2VIX (Fear Gauge)i
16.8
Normal
✓ GREEN
Calm market. No fear.
Market BreadthThe share of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day average. High = most stocks rising together (healthy); low = only a few names holding the market up.
3Market Breadthi
52%
Stocks Above 50 DMA
⚠ YELLOW
Participation narrowing.
Credit SpreadsThe extra interest companies pay to borrow vs. the US government. Narrow = lenders are relaxed; wide = they're pricing in trouble. An early stress detector.
4Credit Spreadsi
0.78%
Investment Grade
✓ GREEN
Lenders are calm.
UnemploymentThe US unemployment rate. Stable or low = healthy economy; rising = the job market is weakening, which usually drags on stocks.
5Unemploymenti
4.0%
Stable
✓ GREEN
Job market healthy.
Liquidity (M2 YoY)Year-over-year growth in M2, the total money supply — the 'fuel' in the system. Expanding = plenty of liquidity for assets; contracting = the tide going out.
6Liquidity (M2 YoY)i
+4.2%
Expanding
✓ GREEN
Plenty of fuel.
OVERALL MARKET HEALTH
GREEN
✓
Conditions are favorable for long-term investors. Execute your plan and ignore the noise.
5 EARLY-WARNING GAUGES · WHAT'S AHEAD
Yield Curve (10y–3mo)The gap between 10-year and 3-month Treasury rates. Normally positive; when it goes negative (inverts), a recession has historically followed 6–18 months later.
1Yield Curve (10y–3mo)i
+0.35%
Flat
⚠ YELLOW
Curve flat — late-cycle watch.
Jobless Claims TrendThe recent trend in weekly first-time unemployment filings. Falling/stable = healthy labor market; rising fast = layoffs picking up, an early recession warning.
2Jobless Claims Trendi
+2.0%
Falling / Stable
✓ GREEN
Layoffs low — labor leads healthy.
VIX Term StructureCompares 3-month expected volatility to 1-month. Above 1 = calm/normal; below 1 = traders fear near-term turmoil more than later — an acute stress signal.
3VIX Term Structurei
1.06×
Contango (calm)
✓ GREEN
Forward vol calm — no stress priced.
Credit Spread MomentumWhether corporate borrowing costs have tightened or widened over the last 20 days. Tightening = credit relaxing; widening fast = stress building before stocks feel it.
4Credit Spread Momentumi
-0.02%
Tightening
✓ GREEN
Spreads tightening — credit relaxed.
Breadth Momentum (RSP/SPY)Equal-weight vs. cap-weight S&P performance — is the rally broad or driven by a few giants? Broadening = healthy; narrowing = a fragile, top-heavy market.
5Breadth Momentum (RSP/SPY)i
+0.5%
Broadening
✓ GREEN
Rally broadening — healthy participation.
FORWARD OUTLOOK
YELLOW
Leading gauges, 0–100. An early-warning read of where conditions are heading — never a forecast.
WHAT TO DO TODAY — today's read, tilted by what's ahead
The early-warning signs are cooling.
Today looks fine; a few early signals are cooling, so keep buys small and steady.
NOWGREEN86/100
↘
AHEADYELLOW54/100
Forward indicators are early-warning gauges, not predictions.They tilt today's playbook — they never override it.
WHAT SHOULD I DO TODAY?
ACCUMULATION MODE(Building Wealth)
✓Keep buying (DCA)
✓Deploy cash weekly
✓Add on pullbacks
✓Stay fully invested
ACTION: CONTINUE DCA
DISTRIBUTION MODE(Living Off Portfolio)
✓Sell quarterly
✓Refill cash bucket
✓Take from gains
✓Stay the course
ACTION: NORMAL WITHDRAWALS
PORTFOLIO PROGRESS
Total Progress to $1.00M$0.19M / $1.00M
18.6%
Time to reach $1.00M17.5 yrs
at 7.0% return + 0.6% dividends + $1,000/mo (fixed $ goal, set returns/contribution in the calculator)
VOO SHARE GOAL
150 / 30050.0%
Retirement Calculator
See how your money grows and supports your future.
YOUR RETIREMENT NUMBER
$1.20M
Needed to spend $4,000 / month
Calculated using your selected withdrawal rate target.
On Track
At your current assumptions, you're projected to reach your retirement number in 32.0 years.
15%
15% COMPLETE
YOU HAVE
$0.19M
Invested today
STILL NEEDED
$1.01M
To reach your goal
IF YOU RETIRED TODAY
4YEARS
If you retired today with $0.19M and spent $4,000/month, your portfolio would last approximately 4 years.
Based on your current portfolio, spending, return, and inflation assumptions.
YEARS UNTIL RETIREMENT
32.0YEARS
At your current assumptions, this is how long until you reach your retirement number.
ANNUAL CASH FLOW AT RETIREMENT
$48,000/YR
($4,000/mo in today's dollars)
% OF THE WAY THERE
15%
$1.01M still to invest
FUTURE ANNUAL INCOME
~$0.12M/yr
in 32.0 years
TARGET WITHDRAWAL RATE
Conservative (4.0%) is currently selected. This is your planned annual withdrawal rate in retirement.
This changes your retirement target amount, not how long your current portfolio would last.
EXPECTED INFLATION
3.0%/yr
Adjustable assumption
About 3% is the long run US average. It steadily raises the dollars you will need.
EXPECTED RETURN
7.0%
Adjustable assumption
S&P 500 price return only. Dividends are added separately, so this is not the full total return figure.
VOO DIVIDEND / SHARE (QUARTERLY)
$1.87/sh
Adjustable assumption
$1,122/yr in dividends (~0.60% yield), reinvested while building. In retirement that covers 2% of your spend.
CONTRIBUTION
$1,000/mo
Your choice
How much you add every month while building. There is no single correct number.
ADJUST YOUR PLAN
Monthly Spending
$2,000$4,000$50,000
Target Withdrawal Rate
4% Cons.5% Bal.6% Aggr.
Expected Return
0%7.0%16%
Price return only; dividends are added separately.
Dividend Yield
0%1%2%
Reinvested while building.
Inflation Rate
0%3.0%6%
Monthly Contribution
$0$1,000$20k
How much you add every month while building.
Current Portfolio
$0$0.19M$10M
HOW LONG YOUR MONEY WOULD LAST
~4 yrs
If you retired today on $0.19M and drew $4,000/mo (rising 3.0%/yr for inflation), with the balance still earning 7.0%/yr, the money lasts about 4 years.
Put $10,000 to work now and reach your number ~0.6 yrs sooner (31.4 vs 32.0 yrs).
A simplified estimate. It accounts for inflation (your number rises each year) but still excludes taxes, fees, and market sequence of returns risk. A planning illustration only, not financial advice.
BITCOIN FOUR-YEAR CYCLE — historical pattern of prior cycles, NOT a prediction
MONTHS SINCE 4TH HALVING
28mo
Apr 2024 halving · 4-yr rhythm
RESET · REBUILD
Halving~12mo~18mo~24mo30mo+
Deep into the cycle — prior cycles were rebuilding a base around here.
2012 cycle
PEAK$1.1kNov 2013 · ~12mo
TROUGH$178Jan 2015 · ~26mo
2016 cycle
PEAK$20kDec 2017 · ~17mo
TROUGH$3.2kDec 2018 · ~29mo
2020 cycle
PEAK$69kNov 2021 · ~18mo
TROUGH$16kNov 2022 · ~30mo
Live price history unavailable right now — showing the real dated peaks & troughs only.
NEXT-CYCLE TIMING PROJECTION — a conditional window from the 4-yr cadence, NOT a price target
Projected — assumes the 4-year cycle holds. Timing window only — not a price target, not a guarantee. The 5th halving is estimated ≈ April 2028 (real cadence: ~every 4 years). Prior tops formed 13–18 months post-halving and that lag has lengthened each cycle (+13 → +17 → +18mo), so the projected top window leans later — mid-to-late 2029, tailing into early 2030. Note the current cycle has already run past its own 12–18-month top window without a clear blow-off top, so the pattern may be weakening. No price numbers are implied anywhere here.
CYCLE TOP RADAR — real top-detection signals, early-warning context (not predictions)
Top-radar signals unavailable right now — they require live BTC history / the MVRV feed.
Historical pattern of the prior three cycles — NOT a guarantee or prediction. Past cycles peaked roughly 12–18 months after each halving, but every cycle differs and there is no promise this one repeats. Price overlay is real BTC history, each cycle shown as a multiple of its halving-day price. The top-radar gauges (Pi Cycle, MVRV Z-Score) are real, mechanical signals that historically coincided with prior tops — shown as early-warning context, never a price or date prediction. No forward price target is implied anywhere in this module.
DATA SOURCES — what feeds this dashboard
Tiingo
Equity holdings · live IEX price (any ticker)
VOO 200-DMA trend
VOO dividend (TTM ÷ 4)
AHEAD · breadth momentum (RSP ÷ SPY)
↳ falls back to Yahoo, then FRED
Update: Prices real-time · daily series
FRED
VIX (VIXCLS)
Credit spreads (ICE BofA · BAMLC0A0CM)
Unemployment (UNRATE)
Liquidity · M2 YoY (M2SL)
AHEAD · yield curve (T10Y3M)
AHEAD · jobless claims (ICSA)
AHEAD · credit momentum (BAMLC0A0CM Δ20d)
Update: Daily · M2 weekly
Cboe / Yahoo
VIX fear gauge (^VIX)
AHEAD · VIX term structure (^VIX3M ÷ ^VIX)
↳ labeled default if ^VIX3M is unavailable
Update: Real-time · 15-min delayed
CoinGecko
Crypto holdings · live price (BTC, ETH, SOL, …)
BTC cycle overlay (daily history, days=max)
Pi Cycle Top (111-DMA vs 2×350-DMA)
↳ falls back to Yahoo BTC-USD; facts only if both fail
Update: Real-time · history cached 12h
bitcoin-data.com
BTC cycle radar · MVRV Z-Score
↳ gauge shown 'unavailable' if the feed fails
Update: Daily · cached 12h
StreetStats
Market breadth (% S&P 500 > 50-DMA)
↳ 52% estimate if unavailable
Update: Daily · cached hourly
AUTOMATIC DATA REFRESH
Each source updates on its own schedule. The dashboard pulls a fresh snapshot about every 3 minutes — and instantly when you click “Refresh now.”
Important: My Retirement Coach provides general market information and educational, behavioral coaching for long-term investors. It is not investment, financial, tax, or legal advice, is not personalized to your situation, and creates no advisory or fiduciary relationship. All investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal; past performance does not guarantee future results, and any historical averages shown describe the past, not a promise about the future. Market data is provided “as is” from third-party sources, may be delayed or inaccurate, and should not be relied on for trading. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions. Your holdings and plan are stored only in your own browser. By using this site you agree it is for informational purposes only.